Projects and Related Studies
Early Warning of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events for Regional Agriculture
The objective of this study is to utilize a regional case study of intensive irrigated agriculture in a region where 1) regional climate fluctuations specifically affect agriculture, 2) regional climate conditions can be explicitly linked to ENSO phenomena, and 3) complex water institutions strongly govern adaptability to climate fluctuations. Based on current validated understanding of the linkages between large-scale climate states and specific Pacific Northwest weather station temperature, precipitation, and snowpack records we will specifically show whether and how "early warning" climate forecast information can be used to reduce the vulnerability of irrigated agriculture to low water-availability conditions. Subject to the known uncertainty and skill of such advanced forecasts, we will consider 1) possible responses by the Bureau of Reclamation in operating the Yakima project reservoirs; 2) specific actions that farmers could take with respect to crop/cultivar selection and timing as well as irrigation practices, 3) advance arrangements for allocation of water within the existing senior-junior water rights institutions of Washington State's version of western water law, and 4) any changes to institutions that might be particularly advantageous with "early-warning" climate forecasts. Because we will be working directly with the agricultural community and university agricultural extension faculty to identify and evaluate specific measures that could be taken, the potential user community for this information will immediately benefit.
Project contact: Michael Scott