Projects and Related Studies
Tri-Cities Economic Impact Model
The Tri-Cities Economic Impact Model was adapted from a version of the IMPLAN modeling system for Benton and Franklin Counties. IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning) is a regional economic modeling system, originally developed by the U.S. Forest Service, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. IMPLAN provides a framework for analyzing the economic impacts (changes in employment, output, income, etc.) from any number of economic shock scenarios. Examples include effects of public policy, new plant locations, tourism expenditures, plant closings, major events, or technology change. The heart of the IMPLAN system is the 538-sector benchmark input-output table for the US economy, maintained by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce. In developing the special-purpose version for the Tri-Cities, we:
- updated the national and regional model default coefficients to the BEA data released in 1994. These values have been price-updated to 1992 constant dollars.
- updated based on the most recent local estimates of employment and payroll available (1996-1998) from the U.S. Department of Commerce Regional Economic Information System and the State of Washington Department of Employment Security, data on retail sales from the Washington State Department of Revenue, and data on population from the Washington State Office of Financial Management were used to re-calibrate the default model coefficients to local conditions as of 1996.
- model was tested on 1998 conditions.
- the baseline final demand profile was used to benchmark the Tri City model to 1996 economic information for Benton and Franklin Counties (the most recent year with most complete data).
The model is designed to evaluate the effects of local economic activities on the estimated tax revenues generated for use by the County government. The model uses expenditure information to estimate the economic impacts of a given scenario, and then uses the economic impacts to estimate County revenue effects. To estimate reliable results, several guidelines for developing impact scenarios must be observed.
Currently, the model is designed for "one-shock-at-a-time" analysis. This means that if the analyst wants to evaluate the impacts of several concurrent events/shocks/activities in the economy, each must be analyzed as an individual scenario and the results across all of the scenarios then aggregated to estimate the net effect.
Project contact: Michael Scott